The bipartisan team of GQR and Redbud Consulting released results from a survey conducted for the nonpartisan nonprofit Issue One showing that while supporters of former President Donald Trump are the least likely to say they will trust election results if Trump loses, women are also less trusting of results if their favored candidate loses – no matter who they support.
Among all American adults, 61 percent say they will trust the election results somewhat or a lot, if their preferred candidate loses. Those who support Vice President Kamala Harris (79 percent) are much more likely to say this than Trump supporters (44 percent). This gap is expected based on Trump’s false rhetoric around the “stolen” 2020 election and his rhetoric sowing doubt ahead of the 2024 election.
However, less expected is the gender gap: 65 percent of men say they will trust the results if their preferred candidate loses, compared to 57 percent of women. Among Harris supporters, 84 percent of men and 75 percent of women indicate trust if she loses, and among Trump supporters 49 percent of men and 39 percent of women will trust the results if he loses. The data are clear that being a Trump supporter is the largest factor in a lack of trust in election results, but women consistently lag being men across demographics whether they support Harris or Trump.
“These results highlight the fact that Trump has consistently undermined the electoral system in ways that matter for his supporters, but also show that there is a larger trust problem in our elections that extends beyond Trump, and will extend beyond 2024 regardless of the results,” said Natalie Jackson, Vice President at GQR. “Women clearly feel less seen in the political system than men, and the consistency of this pattern is striking, if unsurprising give the historical and current debates about women’s rights.”
Independent women who support Harris lag eleven points behind men in election trust (86 percent independent men to 75 percent independent women), and the same gap holds for those who support Trump (43 percent independent men to 34 percent independent women). This trust gap is mostly driven by white women, who lag 7 points behind white men among Harris supporters (87 percent white men to 80 percent white women) and 12 points among Trump supporters (46 percent white men to 34 percent white women); there are no significant gender gaps among other race groups.
The gender gap is largest among those under age 50: 84 percent of men under 50 who support Harris will trust the results if she loses, compared to 75 percent of women under 50, and an astonishing 61 percent of men under 50 who support Trump will trust the results if he loses, compared to 41 percent of women under 50 who support Trump.
“As we head into the final week of voting in the 2024 election, these survey findings highlight the urgent need for comprehensive public education about our electoral system to build confidence in election outcomes,” said Carah Ong Whaley, Director of Election Protection for Issue One. “The fact that so many Americans, particularly women, express doubts about election results, underscores the critical importance of providing accurate information, countering misinformation, and reinforcing the systems and processes that ensure free, fair, and secure elections.”
Satisfaction with the electoral system drives trust
The 57 percent of Americans who say they are very or fairly satisfied with the way the electoral system works in the U.S. are much more likely to trust election results, even if their candidate loses (72 percent among those who are satisfied to 45 percent among those who are not satisfied). Among Harris supporters that are satisfied with the electoral system, 85 percent will trust the election results if she loses, compared to 69 percent among those who are not satisfied. A majority – 59 percent – of Trump supporters who are satisfied with the electoral system will trust the results if he loses, compared to a troubling 24 percent among those who are not satisfied with the system.
“It is no surprise that people who think the system doesn’t work well will be less willing to trust results,” said Alex Lundry, President of Redbud Consulting. “While Trump has undoubtedly exacerbated the problems, institutional trust was declining before he stepped onto the political scene, and it’s clear we have work to do to win back Americans’ trust in our key systems of democracy.”
Women are less likely to say they are satisfied with the electoral system than men: 64 percent of men are satisfied, compared to 52 percent of women. Again, this is driven by women under 50 and white women: 66 percent of men under 50 are satisfied with the system, compared to 50 percent of women, and the gap is even larger between white men (68 percent) and white women (49 percent).
Women’s mistrust and lack of satisfaction carries across questions about satisfaction with democracy and representation as well. Two-thirds of men (67 percent) are satisfied with how democracy works, compared to 52 percent of women, and 52 percent of men are satisfied with how well the U.S. government represents the views and needs of “people like you,” compared to 44 percent of women.
Everyone is concerned about social media as a vehicle for undermining elections
The vast majority of Americans – 83 percent – are at least somewhat concerned that groups will use social media to cast doubt on the election results, and a similar 80 percent are concerned that foreign groups from places like Iran, China, and Russia will use social media to cast doubt on the results. The vast majority (83 percent) also express concern that groups will use social media to incite violence after the election, including 33 percent who are extremely concerned and 25 percent who are very concerned.
Across these concerns about the role of social media, there are no substantial differences between groups: Democrats and Harris supporters, and Republicans and Trump supporters, all equally express these concerns. There is no gender gap.
Additional findings from the survey include:
- Black Americans are slightly more likely to be satisfied with the electoral system than white Americans (64 percent to 58 percent). They are also more likely than white Americans say they will trust the results of the election (72 percent to 56 percent), but do not have a significant gender divide on that question.
- Hispanic Americans are more likely to say they will trust the results if their preferred candidate loses than white Americans (68 percent to 56 percent), but they are similarly likely to say they are satisfied with the electoral system (57 percent to 58 percent).
- AAPI voters are also more likely to say they will trust the results if their preferred candidate loses (72 percent). They are slightly, but not significantly, less likely to say they are satisfied with the electoral system than white Americans (52 percent to 58 percent).
- About one in five frequent social media users (19 percent) report that they have seen a lot of posts about the risks of voting by mail or absentee voting, but a similar number (18 percent) have seen a lot of posts about the benefits of voting by mail or absentee voting.
- One in four frequent social media users (24 percent) have seen a lot of posts about how to register to vote, and another 33 percent have seen some posts on the topic.
- One in five frequent social media users have seen a lot of posts about non-citizens illegally voting in elections, and another 27 percent see it sometimes. Men are more likely to report seeing these posts than women.
Methodology
GQR and Redbud Consulting, on behalf of Issue One, conducted a 20-minute online survey among 1500 adults nationally, including 1200 base and oversamples of an additional 100 Black, 100 Hispanic, and 100 Asian American/Pacific Islander (AAPI) adults. The survey fielded September 3-8, 2024. Respondents were selected from Verasight’s online panel community, which blends probability-based recruited panelists with opt-in panelists. Because the sample is based in part on those who initially self-selected for participation in the panel rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to, sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error.
If this poll were conducted among a probability sample, then the margin of error would be +/- 2.8 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence interval; the margin of error is higher among subgroups. The data are statistically weighted to Census parameters for region, age, education, and gender composition. Partisanship is weighted to an average of partisanship in recent high-quality surveys, including Pew Research and Gallup. Results may not add to 100% due to rounding or multiple responses.
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