Thursday, June 25th, 2020

Diario Libre, a leading news site in the Dominican Republic, published this week the results of GQR’s final survey on the upcoming July 5 general election. The survey shows that despite the global pandemic and state of emergency, the underlying dynamics for the election remain the same: Voters desire change and feel that only new leadership can tackle corruption.

With less than two weeks until the election, opposition candidate for the PRM, Luis Abinader, maintains a large lead over the competition. If the election were held today, 56% of likely voters would support Abinader; 29% would support vote for the PLD’s Gonzalo Castillo; while 12% would vote for Leonel Fernandez. If this result holds, Abinader and PRM would win in the first round and avoid a second round later in July.

With more than 24,000 positive cases of coronavirus and 600 related deaths in the country, Dominicans are gripped by fear about the virus and hold deep concerns about the country opening too quickly. By more than a 2 to 1 margin, Dominicans say they are worried the country is opening up too quickly rather than too slowly.

The unprecedented nature of voting during a pandemic creates additional unpredictability. When asked about how coronavirus changes their interest in voting, 24% of Dominicans say they are much or somewhat less likely to vote. Further, results do not take into account Dominicans voting abroad – or any foul play. More than a third (34%) of Dominicans fear that the upcoming election will not be free and fair.

The survey was designed and analyzed by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (GQR), in partnership with Senior Director Jessica Reis of Bully Pulpit Interactive.

For more on the poll, visit here, here, here, and here.

Continuing coverage of the poll and reactions can be found here: