Executive Summary

While some claim that the Jewish vote is trending Republican and President George Bush will perform better with Jewish voters this year, a recent survey for the National Jewish Democratic Council of Jewish voters shows that Bush has not improved his support from the 2000 election. Currently, Bush loses to John Kerry in a presidential contest by a 53-point margin (75 to 22 percent)1. Kerry’s strength is just 4 points shy Al Gore’s support (79 percent), while Bush shows statistically no gain from the 19 percent he collected in 2000. Furthermore, when respondents are asked who they voted for in 2000, the current contest is virtually identical to the last presidential race (76 to 21 percent) underscoring Bush’s stagnation among Jewish voters.

Bush remains deeply unpopular with Jewish voters; only 20 percent give him favorable ratings and 73 percent rate him unfavorably. Kerry, in contrast, receives positive ratings (59 percent favorable, 27 percent unfavorable) and 78 percent of his supporters say there is no chance they will vote for Bush in the presidential election. Jewish voters support Kerry on a range of domestic and international issues, including saying doing a better job on Israel (66 percent Kerry v. 34 percent Bush), only 24 percent say they are closer to Bush than Kerry on Israel, which is nearly equal to his share of the vote.

Methodology

This memo is based on a Greenberg Quinlan Rosner web survey of 817 Jewish likely voters completed between July 26 - 28, 2004. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent.

Key Findings

• Jewish voters are more pessimistic about the direction of the country, but have the same concerns as the national electorate.
• Bush maintains poor standing with Jewish voters, despite efforts to reach out to this portion of the electorate.
• John Kerry’s personal standing in the Jewish community is strong; 59 percent of Jewish voters offer warm or favorable ratings and 27 percent cool ratings.
• Jewish voters are solidly with Kerry on a range of issues and favor the Democratic candidate on Israel.