The USC Dornsife/LA Times Poll was once again the most accurate statewide poll in California reflecting the outcome of yesterday’s heavily contested Democratic presidential primary contest.
While nearly a half dozen public polls released in the final three weeks indicated that Clinton and Sanders were statistically tied, the latest USC Dornsife/LA Times Poll, conducted May 19-31, 2016 by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and American Viewpoint, showed Hillary Clinton with a 10-point margin over Bernie Sanders among likely Democratic primary voters. Actual poll returns as of June 8th indicate that Clinton will win with a margin of roughly 10.5 points, leading FiveThirtyEight senior political analyst Harry Enten to call our result the “best of any poll in the state.”
The USC/Dornsife/LA Times Poll was also the most accurate in predicting the outcome of the contested Senate primary election. Our poll showed Kamala Harris ahead among likely voters with a 20-point margin over Loretta Sanchez in second, followed by a number of Republicans. Other public polls in the final weeks showed a closer race between Harris and Sanchez. Actual results thus far put Harris ahead by 22-points.
This poll’s accuracy follows a string of successes for GQR and the USC Dornsife/LA Times survey. The poll correctly anticipated the result of eight statewide elections in the fall of 2014, including a number of narrow contests. In the 2014 primary, the USC Dornsife/LA Times poll was lauded for being the most accurate predictor of the gubernatorial primary. In 2012, we correctly predicted the winning side of all ballot measures we tested. And during the final two weeks leading up to the 2010 election, 10 polling organizations released data on the Gubernatorial and Senate races—GQR’s surveys ranked right at the top in terms of predicting the actual results and we were the first poll to show Governor Brown with a double-digit lead.
You can find the results from the most recent USC Dornsife/LA Times poll here.