Final UK marginal poll


  • Below are the tables for the UK Labour marginal poll referred to in the Guardian, conducted 27-30 April.
  • The poll was conducted across a set of non-Labour held target constituencies. Data were weighted by region, gender, age, social grade, ethnicity, marginality and past vote to be representative of those seats. The 2010 result in these seats was Labour 34, Conservative 37, UKIP 3, Lib Dems 21, Green 1.
  • Prior to the voting intention question we asked respondents for their view on country direction, top issues, and attitudes to the parties and the leaders. The full text of these questions is shown in the accompanying questionnaire document.
  • The final voting intention numbers reflect two further adjustments – filtering to likely voters and allocating those who were undecided or refused to give a voting intention.
  • The likely allocated voting intention in this poll: Labour 36; Conservative 37, UKIP11, Lib Dem 7.
  • As a point of comparison, applying this swing uniformly to the national vote share would have produced a c.5 point Conservative national lead a week from polling day.

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