New University of Southern California Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences/Los Angeles Times Poll


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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, in conjunction with American Viewpoint, conducted this survey on behalf of the University of Southern California Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences and the Los Angeles Times.  The latest poll shows:

  • Jerry Brown Holds Large Lead in California Governor's Race.
  • Only 1 in 4 likely voters can identify Gov. Jerry Brown's opponent.
  • Most Californians don't feel mistreated by police, but believe others have been unfairly targeted.
  • Voters mostly approve of police, but views split along racial lines.
  • Weak support for Prop. 46 targeting medical malpractice.
  • Support for Prop. 46 Drops Steeply as Voters Hear Initiative Details.
  • Calif. voters split on whether children crossing border illegally should be allowed to stay.
  • Voters support a path to legalization for immigrants here illegally.

 
Key Findings

Frequency Questionnaire
Crosstabs
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Press Release
 
Key findings from the most recent University of Southern California Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences and Los Angeles Times statewide poll, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and American Viewpoint, include:

  • Governor Brown holds a 57 percent approval rating—the highest of his term—which matches his vote share. Among likely voters, Brown leads Neel Kashkari 57-36 percent, including 62-27 percent among No Party Preference voters.
  • Prop 1 generates support amid increasing concerns about the drought. A 51 percent majority now says the California drought is a crisis, up 11 points in the last three months alone. The Prop 1 ballot summary wins the support of likely voters 64-22 percent, and holds at 56 percent support after the fiscal impact statement is included.
  • Initial support for Prop 46 erodes as the debate is played out. Likely voters initially support the ballot summary for Prop 46 by a wide margin, but that edge dissipates with the simple inclusion of the fiscal impact statement, dropping support for Prop 46 below 50 percent. While likely voters favor the drug testing requirement, they outright oppose increasing the cap on medical malpractice damages.

 
Articles

September 12

Only 1 in 4 likely voters can identify Gov. Jerry Brown's opponent - LA Times
Jerry Brown Holds Large Lead in California Governor's Race - USC Dornsife

September 13

Most Californians don't feel mistreated by police, but believe others have been unfairly targeted. - USC Dornsife
Voters mostly approve of police, but views split along racial lines - LA Times
Weak support for Prop. 46 targeting medical malpractice - LA Times
Support for Prop. 46 Drops Steeply as Voters Hear Initiative Details - USC Dornsife

September 15

Calif. voters split on whether children crossing border illegally should be allowed to stay - USC Dornsife
Voters support a path to legalization for immigrants here illegally - LA Times

Methodology

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, in conjunction with American Viewpoint, conducted this survey on behalf of the University of Southern California Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences and the Los Angeles Times.
 
These findings are based on a random sample survey of 1,507 (1,507 weighted) registered voters in the state of California, conducted from September 2 – 8, 2014. Interviews were conducted by telephone using live interviewers from Interviewing Services of America. Voters were randomly selected from a list of registered voters statewide and reached on a landline or cell phone depending on the number they designated on their voter registration. Forty percent of this sample was reached on a cell phone. Up to five attempts were made to reach and interview each randomly selected voter. The study includes an oversample of 400 known-Latino registered voters, with the total number of Latino voters interviewed at 489 (347 weighted). All interviews among known Latinos were carried out via telephone by bilingual Latino interviewers, and conducted in the preferred language of the survey respondent, English or Spanish. Overall, 34 percent of interviews among the known Latino sample were conducted in Spanish and 66 percent in English. The technique of using fully bilingual interviewers yields higher response and cooperation rates and is greatly preferred because it does not terminate calls with Spanish-language households and require a callback.
 
The study also includes a subset of 1109 (1089 weighted) likely general election voters. In this study, "likely voters" represent someone who has voted in at least one of the last two midterm general elections in California (2006 or 2010) and reports being "almost certain" to vote in Q.9; someone who has voted in both of the last two midterm elections (2006 and 2010) and reports that they are "almost certain" to vote or will "probably" vote in Q.9; someone who registered to vote after the 2010 election, voted in the 2012 election, and reports that they are "almost certain" to vote or will "probably" vote in Q.9; or someone who registered after the 2012 election and reports that they are "almost certain" to vote or will "probably" vote in Q.9.
 
Upon completion of all interviewing, the results were weighted to bring the Latino oversample population into line with the racial and ethnic composition of registered voters in California. The data were weighted to reflect the total population of registered voters throughout the state, balancing on regional and demographic characteristics for gender, age, race, and party registration according to known census estimates and voter file projections.
 
The maximum sampling error for the overall sample of 1,507 registered voters is +/- 2.9 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. Margin of error for subgroups is higher. The margin of error for Latinos is +/- 4.8 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. The margin of error for likely voters is +/- 3.3 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.