New University of Southern California Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences/Los Angeles Times Poll


usclatpoll

On behalf of theUniversity of Southern California Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciencesand theLos Angeles Times, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, in conjunction withAmerican Viewpoint, conducted a new survey among 1,504 registered California voters. The latest survey shows:

  • Sen. Feinstein far ahead of Republican challenger 
  • Support plunges for Prop. 30, Gov. Jerry Brown's tax initiative
  • Prop. 37 is in dead heat amid ad blitz
  • Support Slips for Ballot Measure to Require Labeling of Genetically Modified Foods
  • Support for end to California death penalty surges
  • California voters say they don't ignore anything on the ballot
  • California poll shows Obama with smaller lead
  • Californians Far Less Pessimistic About the Country’s Future than a Year Ago
  • California voters more tolerant of illegal immigrants
  • Californians support strong law and border enforcement on illegal immigration, but have a soft spot for DREAM-ers
  • Gov. Jerry Brown losing reliable supporters for his tax hike
  • California Voters Closely Divided on Death Penalty Repeal
  •  

Key Findings

With election day nearing, several high-profile propositions on the California ballot are deadlocked and coming down to the wire, according to the new University of Southern California Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences, and Los Angeles Times statewide poll, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and American Viewpoint.

Support for Proposition 30 has eroded over the last month, though it maintains a slight lead, 46 to 42 percent.  Undecided voters (12 percent) still make up a significant bloc, however, and could give the Governor’s tax proposal the edge it needs to pass on election day. Meanwhile, Proposition 38, the competing tax initiative, has little chance of passing, with only 31 percent support.

Additional key findings include:

  • Only one ballot initiative that we tested in this survey appears almost certain to pass. Proposition 36, which modifies California’s “Three Strikes Law” to impose 25 years to life sentences only when the third felony conviction is “serious or violent,” has 64 percent support among registered voters and stable support over the past month.
  • Money makes a difference on Prop 37.  In just one month, support for Proposition 37 – requiring mandatory labeling of genetic foods – has dropped 18 points, from 62 percent support to 44 percent support.  The “no” side has outspent the “yes” side almost five-to-one on the campaign, finding proponents of the measure struggling to keep up.
  • Governor Brown’s support is holding steady.  Even as support has dropped for Proposition 30, Governor Brown’s approval has held fairly steady since last month.  Among registered voters, 45 percent approve of his job performance, compared to 46 percent in September.
  • The “Paycheck Protection” Initiative faces an uphill climb to election day.  Only 40 percent of registered voters say they will vote “yes” on Proposition 32, which bans corporate and union contributions to political candidates and prohibits those organizations from deducting money from an employee’s paycheck for political purposes. 
  • No surprises for California on the presidential level.  President Obama remains in a good position to win California on November 6th, getting 55 percent of the vote to Mitt Romney’s 39 percent (54 to 40 percent among likely voters).

Articles

Below you can find articles and stories on findings of this poll:

October 24

Sen. Feinstein far ahead of Republican challenger in new poll - LA Times

October 25

Support plunges for Prop. 30, Gov. Jerry Brown's tax initiative - LA Times

Prop. 37 is in dead heat amid ad blitz - LA Times

Support for Prop. 30 Drops Below 50 Percent - USC Dornsife

Support Slips for Ballot Measure to Require Labeling of Genetically Modified Foods - USC Dornsife

Gov. Jerry Brown losing reliable supporters for his tax hike - LA Times

October 26

Support for end to California death penalty surges - LA Times

California voters say they don't ignore anything on the ballot - LA Times

California Voters Closely Divided on Death Penalty Repeal - USC Dornsife

October 27

California poll shows Obama with smaller lead – LA Times

Californians Far Less Pessimistic About the Country’s Future than a Year Ago – USC Dornsife

October 28

California voters more tolerant of illegal immigrants, poll finds – LA Times

Californians support strong law and border enforcement on illegal immigration, but have a soft spot for DREAM-ers – USC Dornsife

Methodology

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, in conjunction with American Viewpoint, conducted this survey on behalf of the University of Southern California Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences and the Los Angeles Times.

These findings are based on a random sample survey of 1,504 (1,504 weighted) registered voters in the state of California, conducted from October 15-21, 2012.  Interviews were conducted by telephone using live interviewers from Interviewing Services of America.  Voters were randomly selected from a list of registered voters statewide and reached on a landline or cell phone depending on the number they designated on their voter registration.  Thirteen percent of this sample was reached on a cell phone.  Up to five attempts were made to reach and interview each randomly selected voter.

The study includes an oversample of Latino registered voters, with the total number of Latino voters interviewed at 486 (301 weighted).  All interviews among known Latinos were carried out via telephone by bilingual Latino interviewers, and conducted in the preferred language of the survey respondent, English or Spanish. Overall, 37 percent of interviews among the known Latino sample were conducted in Spanish and 63 percent in English. The technique of using fully bilingual interviewers yields higher response and cooperation rates and is greatly preferred because it does not terminate calls with Spanish-language households and require a callback.

Upon completion of all interviewing, the results were weighted to bring the Latino oversample population into line with the racial and ethnic composition of registered voters in California. The data were weighted to reflect the total population of registered voters throughout the state, balancing on regional and demographic characteristics for gender, age, race, and party registration according to known census estimates and voter file projections.

The maximum sampling error for the overall sample of 1,504 registered voters is +/- 2.9 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.  Margin of error for subgroups is higher.  The margin of error for the 486 Latino sample respondents is +/- 4.9 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.

·Gov. Jerry Brown losing reliable supporters for his tax hike”

·Missing bullet for article entitled “California Voters Closely Divided on Death Penalty Repeal”