Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner offer this holiday gift to all our friends. New findings from our trove of national surveys allow us to point to key emerging trends. Since 2004, Democracy Corps has conducted over 121,000 interviews of likely voters, compiling a unique database chronicling shifting American public opinion. This year’s combined run of our extensive database, including almost 10,000 interviews from this year alone, presents several thoughts to mull over this holiday season, to better understand the challenges of the year ahead.
Here are some graphs: Graphs
- Seniors are moving. The debate over Social Security and Medicare has moved both the Presidential and Congressional race to even among seniors. They do not like what Republicans are proposing on these programs and have sharply moved against them since the 2010 election. They are watching the debate closely.
- Hispanic voters hold increasingly negative views of the Republican Party. Since January, favorable views of the Republican Party among Hispanics has dropped 13 points. In the Congressional vote, Democrats are winning Hispanics by a two-to-one margin over Republicans, equaling 2008 levels. President Obama holds a 58 to 31 percent lead over Mitt Romney and shows no signs of weakening.
- Independents are growing, while the Republican Party is lifeless. The percentage who think of themselves as independents has grown 6 points since 2004, a gradual increase that puts them almost on par with the percentage identifying as Republicans. Meanwhile, the Republican Party is stagnant. Party identification for Republicans has not grown at all over the last 5 years.
- The Republican Party is deeply unpopular since the 2010 election. Warm, favorable feelings for the Republican Party have crashed and cool, unfavorable feelings for the Republican Party are skyrocketing. Warm ratings have dropped 7 points to 33 percent. Almost one-half give the party a cool, unfavorable rating.
- Youth pull back from both parties. Young voters hold back from both parties and are increasingly identifying as independents. Democratic identification among young people has dropped, but Republicans have not improved their standing with these voters. On our thermometer scale, we have seen a complete collapse for the Republican Party among youth since 2010.
- Support for marriage equality. Support for gay marriage has increased steadily. On our thermometer scale, since 2005, support has increased 10 points with negative views of gay marriage declining 12 points.