End of July Tracking: Real Economic Indicators


Economic Ratings Decline -  Monthly tracking from Citizen Opinion shows troubling trends in the public’s experience, perceptions and conclusions. Virtually every personal measure has returned to the lowest point on our seven months of tracking and macro-expectations have darkened too. These shifts coincide with news in July of slower job growth, persistently high unemployment and weaker than expected 2nd quarter GNP growth.

These darkening perceptions have consequences: Democrats are lagging further behind Republicans on which party can best deal with the economy.

End of July Tracking Graphs

End of July Tracking Analysis

Key Findings

In the July tracking conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Citizen Opinion, as many voters said the economy was getting worse, as improving. Some of the key findings include:

  • Over a third, 35 percent, say the economy will get worse and another 25 percent say it is at the bottom but has not gotten any better. That leaves just 35 percent who say it is improving, down 10 points since April.
  • Only 16 percent give a warm rating to the economy, the lowest level since March. It had been hovering at 20 percent or better since then.
  • Just over three-in-ten give a cool rating to their personal finances, the worst such rating in this tracking since early 2009.
  • Real economic indicators on job loss, wage cuts and problems with home payments have all worsened.

A striking 64 percent say the country overall is moving in the ‘wrong direction,’ compounded by the focus on the direction of the economy.

These conclusions are making life more difficult for Democrats in Congress. In rating which party could do a better job on this most important issue, likely voters pick the Republicans over Democrats by a 49 to 36 percent margin. That is the lowest rating for Democrats in all of our polling and the best result for Republicans. This comes after several months of Democrats narrowing the gap or at least holding steady.

Partisanship tints all of these views of the economy. A strong majority of Democrats - 60 percent - still believe the economy is actively improving. Yet, nearly a majority of both independents and Republicans believe that it is worsening.

Methodology

These results are based on a poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Citizen Opinion. The poll was conducted July 26-29, 2010 among 2008 voters nationwide.


Source: Stanley B. Greenberg, Peyton M. Craighill, Bryan Bennett
Client: Democracy Corps