Dominican Republic’s Leonel Fernandez Poised for Re-election


Mark Feierstein and Jessica Reis
Diario Libre

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Executive Summary

In advance of the May 16 presidential election, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner has been conducting monthly surveys for Diario Libre, the largest-circulated daily newspaper in the Dominican Republic.  In this fourth and final survey - which fielded from April 30 to May 5 - results are predicting a solid victory.

The Diario Libre's story on the poll can be found on their website.

Key Findings

  • President Fernandez has increased his share of likely voters to 55 percent -- up 6 points since March.  As his vote consolidates, his challengers’ totals remain largely unchanged.
  • It is looking increasingly unlikely, but should the election go to a second round, Fernandez is well-positioned to win, garnering 56 percent of the vote.  Sixty-four percent of Dominicans say they expect the election to be over in the first round.
  • Supporters of all the parties remain optimistic about the prospects of their candidate - or at least they profess to be. While Leonel’s supporters are nearly unanimous (97 percent) in their belief that the president will be re-elected, a comparable share of Vargas’s voters (91 percent) says they expect their candidate to win. A plurality (48 percent) of Castro supporters is confident about the PRSC’s chances of victory.

Methodology

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner conducted this nation-wide survey of 1,200 registered voters in the Dominican Republic from April 30-May 5, 2008.  The other surveys were conducted: March 26-31, 2008; February 20-March 3, 2008; and January 28-February 3, 2008.  Within each survey, there was subset of "likely voters" also identified.