Dominican Republic’s Leonel Fernandez Poised for Re-election

Mark Feierstein and Jessica Reis
Diario Libre


Executive Summary

In advance of the May 16 presidential election, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner has been conducting monthly surveys for Diario Libre, the largest-circulated daily newspaper in the Dominican Republic.  In this fourth and final survey - which fielded from April 30 to May 5 - results are predicting a solid victory.

The Diario Libre's story on the poll can be found on their website.

Key Findings

  • President Fernandez has increased his share of likely voters to 55 percent -- up 6 points since March.  As his vote consolidates, his challengers’ totals remain largely unchanged.
  • It is looking increasingly unlikely, but should the election go to a second round, Fernandez is well-positioned to win, garnering 56 percent of the vote.  Sixty-four percent of Dominicans say they expect the election to be over in the first round.
  • Supporters of all the parties remain optimistic about the prospects of their candidate - or at least they profess to be. While Leonel’s supporters are nearly unanimous (97 percent) in their belief that the president will be re-elected, a comparable share of Vargas’s voters (91 percent) says they expect their candidate to win. A plurality (48 percent) of Castro supporters is confident about the PRSC’s chances of victory.


Greenberg Quinlan Rosner conducted this nation-wide survey of 1,200 registered voters in the Dominican Republic from April 30-May 5, 2008.  The other surveys were conducted: March 26-31, 2008; February 20-March 3, 2008; and January 28-February 3, 2008.  Within each survey, there was subset of "likely voters" also identified.