Delivering for North Carolina’s First Congressional District

SITUATION

Following Congressman Don Davis’ narrow victory in 2022, a new Republican majority on the North Carolina Supreme Court allowed North Carolina Republicans to implement an extreme gerrymander designed to flip four Congressional seats from Democrats to Republicans, including Davis’ Eastern North Carolina district. In a region that has already shifted away from Democrats, the new map cut Black voters out of a district that has been represented by a Black member of Congress since 1992.

To win reelection, Davis would need to win over voters in a majority-white district in one of the most racially polarized regions of the country. He would also need to overcome Donald Trump at the top of the ticket, who would drive up turnout among lower propensity Republican voters and would likely win the district. Republicans identified the district as a top target, and the Congressional Leadership Fund funneled nearly $10 million into the district.

SOLUTION

Despite the challenging environment, Davis was popular in his district. The campaign focused on his bipartisan record and history of successfully delivering on the issues that concern Eastern North Carolina most, like costs and immigration.

GQR’s research helped inform some key campaign decisions:

  • Emphasize Davis’ connection to the district. Don Davis was born and raised in his district, growing up cropping tobacco and attending church with his grandmother. He has represented Eastern North Carolina for almost 20 years, first as mayor of Snow Hill, then as State Senator, and finally as Congressman. His background resonated with voters. On the other hand, his opponent Laurie Buckhout just moved to the district and maintained extensive connections to her businesses in Virginia. The campaign emphasized how Buckhout was out of touch with the district, and Davis’ keen understanding of the district helped him effectively advocate for his constituents.
  • Communicate the steps Davis took to help working families. Many voters still struggle due to skyrocketing prices for staples like groceries and gas. The campaign discussed the steps Davis took to protect good-paying jobs in his district by opposing a ban on menthol cigarettes and fighting to maintain a fighter jet program at a local military base.
  • Highlight Davis’ commonsense views on immigration. Voters appreciated Davis’ moderate immigration views. They especially respected the fact that he visited the border three times to hear directly from Border Patrol agents. In an election where most Democrats were on the defensive on immigration, a plurality of voters trusted Davis more than Buckhout to protect the border.
  • Link Davis’ opponent to extremists like Mark Robinson. Buckhout endorsed Mark Robinson for Governor. Robinson was politically toxic in this district, especially after his porn website scandal broke. However, voters cared more about Buckhout’s support for Robinson’s extreme positions, like broad abortion bans, than they cared about his scandals. The Robinson connection disqualified Buckhout on policy, not through his scandals.

This strategy helped Davis win reelection during an otherwise disastrous election for Democrats. Due to his campaign’s sharp focus on the issues that mattered most in his district, Davis won 49.5 percent – 47.8 percent while Harris lost his district 48.0 percent – 51.1 percent. His successful campaign helped prevent the Republicans from expanding their House majority, giving them one of the smallest majorities in US history.