Executive Summary

The nomination of Sarah Palin for Vice President gave the Republican Party and John McCain a real jolt at the heels of a Democratic Convention watched by tens of millions of Americans. Commentators and advocates made strong arguments that Palin’s historic place on the ticket indicated a serious bid to woo women voters, particularly disaffected Hillary Clinton voters. Women’s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund (WVWVAF), a group dedicated to bringing unmarried women into the electorate, wanted to gauge if Palin is generating enthusiasm among women, both in terms of their participation in the election and for the GOP ticket itself.

But in a national survey of 1356 women - 1295 likely women voters - conducted between September 2-3 and focus groups conducted following Palin’s acceptance speech by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for WVWVAF, we found mixed results. Overall, while the selection of Palin is seen positively by women voters, it is also the case that her selection has given little lift to the Republican ticket and significant questions remain about her to be answered. Women voters - married and unmarried alike - were impressed with Palin’s poise and confidence, but wonder what she stood for and how she would address America’s most pressing problems.

Key Findings

• After viewing the acceptance speech of the first female vice presidential candidate for the Republican party, there was no positive electoral movement toward the Republican ticket among either married or unmarried women in these groups. Some unmarried women moved toward the Republican ticket, but an equal number moved against McCain and Palin.
• Fundamental to the unmarried women in these groups, however, she did not sufficiently address key issues in their lives. This is particularly true of the economy, where unmarried women claim to have heard almost nothing of relevance to their economic standing. One single woman said point-blank “I didn’t get anything about the economy.”
• Palin did have some success. On a scale of 0 to 100, she improved her favorability scale roughly 10 points among both married and unmarried women.. We also saw improvement in the number of women who believe she was ready to be vice president. Focus group comments suggest she connected with these voters in a way that made her seem authentic, independent and strong.
• Both conventions are generating great interest and women voters are following both closely. At the same time, more women voters paid attention to the Democratic convention (66 percent following very or somewhat closely) than to the Republican convention (55 percent following very or somewhat closely). Of course, this survey finished prior to the Palin and McCain acceptance speeches and it is possible that the Republican numbers improve as the week progresses.

Survey Methodology

The following memo is based on a nationally representative telephone survey of 1356 women ages 18 and older, including 848 married women and 496 unmarried women. The data were weighted by age, race, education, marital status, voter registration, and region to ensure an accurate reflection of the population. The sample size with these weights applied is 507 women, including 259 married women and 244 unmarried women. The overall margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points. The research was conducted September 2nd-3rd, 2008.

Focus Group Methodology

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research conducted qualitative research commissioned by the Women’s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund in the swing state of Nevada among 22 undecided voters or weak supporters of either candidate who watched Palin’s speech. Half were married women and half were unmarried. Both groups included a number of women who supported Hillary Clinton in the primary, but have not committed to either nominee. Participants answered a series of questions about the election, the candidates, the major issues in this campaign, Sarah Palin in particular and the impact she had on these voters’ judgment of John McCain. They then watched Sarah Palin’s speech live, followed by another series of questions on many of the same topics. Two follow-up focus group discussions conducted separately among married and unmarried women explored reactions to the speech in detail. This is a qualitative exercise - only based on 2 focus groups - and not a representative survey.