Executive Summary

In the latest GQR/POS bi-partisan poll released for NPR today, results indicate that the election is at a real tipping point, with several "firsts" emerging: For the first time since GQR and POS began conducting surveys for NPR, pessimism about the direction of the country has reached a record high of 80 percent, with more than half of likely voters strongly disapproving of Bush's job performance.  Meanwhile, for the first time, the survey also shows Obama taking a clear lead over McCain.

To hear the full NPR broadcast and to read the article on the poll, please visit NPR's website.

Key Findings

• With 80 percent of voters feeling the country is headed in the wrong direction, the anger at President Bush and Congress for not getting things done centers on their failure to lower gas prices, reduce our dependence on foreign oil and end the war in Iraq.  On these issues, Democrats dominate all the developed arguments for the campaigns by over 20 points, even though the Republican arguments presented in the survey tracked those made by John McCain. 

• When the economy - the issue on everyone's mind - is specifically raised in the survey, a majority of voters see both Obama and Clinton as having plans to deal with the economy, keep health care costs under control, provide tax relief to the middle class and make the economy more competitive. Even though Senator McCain announced plans on some of these issues, there is no evidence that the public is listening. McCain confronts a close race with Clinton and is losing to Obama 43 to 48 percent.

Methodology

These results are based on a bi-partisan survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner in conjunction with Public Opinion Strategies for National Public Radio. The survey fielded May 7-10, 2008. It has a sample size of 800 likely voters and a margin of error of +/-3.2 percent.  These observations do not reflect the views of POS or NPR.