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Goodbye ‘Security Moms,’ Hello ‘SUV Moms’
The answer is simple: many of last cycle’s ‘Security Moms’ are now ‘SUV Moms.’ Our latest polling shows that the top national security concern for married women with children is no longer combating terrorism: it’s reducing dependence on foreign oil, and this is moving moms’ votes towards Democratic Congressional candidates. In a survey we conducted for Democracy Corps in August, 45 percent of moms cited energy as one of their top two national security concerns, with 29 percent citing it as their number one priority; in fact, when asked their most important national security priority, they put reducing dependence on foreign oil ahead of terrorism, the war in Iraq, securing our ports, nuclear plants and chemical factories, addressing dangerous countries like Iran and North Korea, and preventing the spread of biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons. Only 12 percent of supposed ‘Security Moms’ cited “combating terrorism" as their top national security priority, and only 27 percent listed it as one of their top two priorities. Even with gas prices declining in the last few weeks, the September Democracy Corps poll showed moms’ concern about reducing dependence on foreign oil holding steady at 44 percent. Additionally, polling conducted the first week of October shows that not only is energy the top national security concern for America’s moms, it’s a top economic concern as well: roughly one in every three moms cited gas prices as their primary economic concern, edging out the cost of retirement and the availability of good jobs. Moms’ new interest in energy policy represents a dramatic change in the political landscape since 2002 when 40 percent of moms cited the war on terror as one of their top reasons to support a Republican candidate for Congress. This cycle, with moms more interested in energy than in security, these voters appear winnable for Democrats. This is because, for many moms, energy and security are linked: nearly two-thirds of moms report that they are concerned about dependence on Middle East oil because having to depend on unstable areas in the Middle East for our oil undermines our security, while a third said that they were concerned about our dependence on Middle East oil because it keeps gas prices high for American consumers. For other moms, the $2.50 per gallon they pay at the pump is still too high, and they believe Republican politicians do nothing about this because they receive campaign contributions from oil companies. In focus groups, we heard the following kinds of comments over and over again: “The [the oil companies] are making more money than they have ever made in the history of oil companies. [Republicans] could do something about it, but they just won’t," one Pennsylvania mom said. “When [redacted Republican Congresswoman] takes money from the oil companies, it means she is going to vote for them." And: “[Redacted Republican Congressman] took a kickback from oil companies to see they won’t have to pay taxes." Moms’ new focus on energy explains why, despite the Bush administration’s recent rhetoric on security, Democrats are making major electoral gains. Democrats made gains with moms over the summer as gas prices rose, and our research shows a 13-point gain in the Congressional vote for Democrats among moms since August - even after gas prices began to fall. Moms’ partisan identification has also shifted: since the 2004 election, there has been a 7-point decrease in the percentage of moms who identify as Republicans, coupled with a 5-point increase in the percentage of moms identifying as Independents and a 1-point increase in the percentage of moms identifying as Democrats. All of this adds up to good news for Democrats. Half of moms have serious or very serious doubts about voting for a Republican Congressional candidate after they hear that Republicans take the side of big oil companies and oppose the development of alternative energy sources. Additionally, 76 percent of moms say they are more likely to vote for a Democratic congressional candidate who makes the case for reducing dependence on foreign oil and investing in alternative fuels. Among moms, messages on reducing dependence on foreign oil tested as well as messages calling for implementing the recommendations of the 9/11 Commission and messages calling for blocking terrorists’ access to dangerous weapons. All of this suggests that despite their record of voting for Republicans in the past, America’s moms are emerging as a key swing group this election and are newly open to voting for Democrats. With a strong energy security message aimed at SUV Moms, Democrats may find themselves in the driver’s seat come November 8th. |
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