Executive Summary

Two new surveys underscore the tremendous opportunity for Democrats seven weeks from the election to flatten the Bush terror-centered, base-pumping strategy and to create an open field for the Democrats on the domestic concerns that Democrats fully dominate. The new findings reinforce that Democrats win in November when they engage upfront and with confidence in the national security and Iraq debate.

Over the last 10 days, as the country commemorated 9/11, Bush tried to nationalize the election, defining this as a contest over the war on terror. His wiretapping and military tribunal offensives were presumably intended to bolster support - particularly with his Republican base - by showing his strength in national security, his commitment to fight terrorism, and his desire to protect America.

The President’s sustained focus on terrorism did nudge up his personal job approval ratings - up from 41 to 44 percent in the past two weeks. Yet, ironically, it actually hurt Republican chances for November, by elevating attention to Iraq and creating the sense that Republican are ignoring people’s economic worries - both of which drive voters toward Democratic congressional candidates. As a result, the congressional ballot, tested on a named basis, expands from a 6-point Democratic edge last week to a 10-point lead now. The Democratic’ advantage expands on the named Senate ballot as well. Consistent with other published poll results, all this suggests the President’s strategy has hit a wall.

The President’s strategy is backfiring because it is driving independents to the Democrats, who now give Bush only a 36 percent approval rating and Democrats a big advantage in the congressional race. The strategy also seems to be energizing Democrats and deenergizing Republicans, giving Democrats a growing edge in enthusiasm for the election.

Methodology:

This memo is based on Greenberg Quinlan Rosner surveys conducted for Democracy Corps of 1006 likely voters nationally between September 17-19, 2006 and 966 likely voters in the 55 most competitive GOP-held swing Congressional districts, between September 12-14, 2006.

Key Findings

• Democrats can win the current national security arguments - not only on Iraq, but also on fighting terror, military tribunals, and wiretapping.
• Democrats should start by showing they take the threat seriously. Virtually all of the effective messages start with statements that stress Democrats’ commitment to protect America and prevent another terrorist attack.
  
• Democrats need to stress Bush/GOP “mismanagement" and need for “a new direction" in Iraq. Voters are convinced the war was not worth the cost, but conflicted about how to go forward.
• Democrats should stress that they offer “a better way to fight terrorism." Voters are ready to reject Bush’s course in Iraq, but with many voters doubting that Democrats have their own plans on security, they only really open up when Democrats lay out elements of “a better way to fight terrorism."