Greenberg Quinlan Rosner’s Poll for USC Dornsife/LA Times Called California’s Most Accurate Poll in the Governor’s Race


In Case You Missed It: USC Dornsife’s earlier release highlighting the accuracy of the most recent USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Poll, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and American Viewpoint:

The USC Dornsife/LA Times Poll was the most accurate statewide poll in reflecting the outcome of yesterday's California gubernatorial primary, correctly predicting businessman Neel Kashkari's second-place finish in the race to determine who will compete for the state's highest office.

The latest poll, conducted May 21-28, 2014, had incumbent Gov. Jerry Brown winning 50 percent of likely voters, Kashkari with 18 percent and California State Assemblyman Tim Donnelly with 13 percent, with 10 percent of likely voters undecided.

Actual poll returns indicate that Kashkari won 19 percent of the vote and will face Brown, who won 55 percent of the vote, in November's general election. In third, Donnelly won 15 percent of the vote.

The USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Poll is the largest statewide survey of registered voters and includes a significant oversample of Latino voters, as well as a robust cell phone sample.

"Low turnout elections are notoriously fluid, but despite record-low turnout, we're pleased that the methodology of the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Poll correctly reflected election results," said Mike Madrid, co-director of the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Poll, distinguished USC Unruh Institute Fellow and Republican strategist. "These results give us confidence in examining Californians' opinions going forward. The poll also lays a deep foundation for what issues are likely to be addressed by both gubernatorial nominees."

This poll’s accuracy follows a string of successes for GQR and the USC Dornsife/LA Times survey. During the final two weeks leading up to the 2010 elections, 10 polling organizations released data on the Gubernatorial and Senate races—GQR’s surveys ranked right at the top in terms of predicting the actual results and we were the first poll to show now-Governor Brown with a double-digit lead. Our accuracy was highlighted in an LA Times editorial:

In the end, Brown won by 12 points and Boxer by nine. The poll that came closest to nailing the results: The L.A. Times/USC survey, which had projected a 13-point margin for Brown and an eight-point margin for Boxer.

And in the weeks leading up to the November 2012 election, GQR conducted a series of polls examining attitudes toward various ballot propositions on behalf of USC/LA Times, including Brown’s signature Prop 30. We correctly predicted the winning side of all ballot measures we tested.

You can find the results from the most recent USC Dornsife/LA Times poll here