New University of Southern California/Los Angeles Times Poll


A new survey was conducted for the Los Angeles Times and the University of South California College of Letters, Arts and Sciences by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner in conjunction with American Viewpoint, both based out of Washington, DC. Nearly nine-in-ten likely voters believe that the state of California is moving in the wrong direction, and describe their emotions about the way things are going as mostly disappointed or angry. There is a tight race to become the next governor of California. Jerry Brown holds a narrow 5 point lead over Meg Whitman in the race among likely voters, 49 to 44 percent. California voters want to have a Senator that supports President Obama’s agenda. Senator Barbara Boxer has moved into an 8-point lead over challenger Carly Fiorina, 51 to 43 percent. Read more to see the full results.

USC-Los Angeles Times Poll - Results

USC-Los Angeles Times Poll - Graphs

USC-Los Angeles Times Poll - Crosstabs

Executive Summary

A new survey was conducted for the Los Angeles Times and the University of South California College of Letters, Arts and Sciences by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner in conjunction with American Viewpoint, both based out of Washington, DC.

Key Findings

Nearly nine-in-ten likely voters believe that the state of California is moving in the wrong direction, and describe their emotions about the way things are going as mostly disappointed or angry.

There is a tight race to become the next governor of California. Jerry Brown holds a narrow 5 point lead over Meg Whitman in the race among likely voters, 49 to 44 percent.

California voters want to have a Senator that supports President Obama’s agenda. Senator Barbara Boxer has moved into an 8-point lead over challenger Carly Fiorina, 51 to 43 percent.

Read Los Angeles Times article:

Proposition 23 poll shows a dead heat among California voters

Brown leads Whitman 49%-44% in poll

Latino voters in California still reluctant to embrace GOP candidates, poll shows

Methodology

This survey was conducted for the Los Angeles Times and the University of South California College of Letters, Arts and Sciences by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner in conjunction with American Viewpoint, both based out of Washington, DC.

These findings are based on a random sample survey of 1,511 registered voters in the state of California conducted from September 15-22, 2010. These findings are also based on 887 likely 2010 voters. Likely voters are defined as registered voters that meet certain conditions based on previous vote history as determined from a voter file, likelihood of voting in 2010, and enthusiasm in the election. This includes respondents who voted in both the previous two general elections who indicate they are “almost certain” or “probably” will vote in 2010 and those who have registered since the 2008 election due to ineligibility who are “almost certain,” all of whom must respond as a 5 or higher on a 0-10 enthusiasm scale.

Interviews were conducted by telephone using live interviewers from Opinion Access Corporation. A separate oversample of likely Latino registered voters were interviewed by telephone by Latino Decisions, a joint effort between Pacific Market Research and professors Dr. Gary Segura from Stanford University and Dr. Matt Barreto from the University of Washington. Bilingual dialers gave respondents the option of taking the survey in English or Spanish.

Voters were randomly selected from a list of registered voters statewide and reached on landline or cell phone depending on the number they designated on their voter registration. The percentage of cell phone respondents in this study matches the percentage of those who list their cell phone on the voter file. Up to five attempts were made to reach and interview each randomly selected voter. In order to include a wider-range of questions in this study, some batteries of related questions were split into random half-samples, with one-half of 764 voters and the other half of 747 voters.

Upon completion of the interviewing, the results were weighted to bring the Latino oversample population into line with the racial and ethnic composition of registered voters in California. The data were weighted to more accurately reflect the total population of registered voters throughout the state, balancing on regional and demographic characteristics for gender, age, race and education according to known census estimates and voter file projections. Party registration was weighted to match the most recent 2010 report from the California Secretary of State’s office.

The maximum sampling error for results based on the overall sample of 1,511 registered voters is +/- 2.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. There was an additional oversample of 400 Latino respondents. Results reported are based on 887 likely voters and 367 Latino registered voters. Results for the full sample have a 2.5-point error margin, 5-point error margin for Latino respondents and 3.3-point error margin for likely voters.