On the Verge of Another Wave?


Stan Greenberg, James Carville, Andrew Baumann
Democracy Corps

Downloads

Congressional Battleground Memo (PDF - 6 K)

Survey Results (PDF - 7 K)

Districts List (PDF - 2 K)

Executive Summary

The latest congressional battleground survey by Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, part of our weekly tracking of the most competitive Republican House seats, finds that Democratic candidates have improved their standing and taken the lead, even closing in on the Republicans in the bottom tier of supposedly toughest seats. With our finding last week that Democratic incumbents have surged in the most marginal Democratic seats, Democrats are poised to make stunning gains on a battlefield that is still expanding at the Republicans’ expense.

Key Findings

In the top tier of races, the 20 most vulnerable Republican seats, Democratic candidates are beginning to pull away, doubling their 4-point lead from last week to 8 points. Meanwhile, Democrats in the next two tiers remain within striking distance, trailing their Republican opponents by just 2 points in the second tier and 3 points in the third and holding the Republicans under 50 percent in both. The result in Tier 2 is unchanged from a week ago, but the Democrats’ deficit in Tier 3 has been cut in half since last week and has closed a remarkable 13 points since we first surveyed these districts two weeks ago. Seats that once appeared out of reach are now very much in play.

Methodology

Survey of 1,780 likely voters in the 50 most competitive Republican-held Congressional districts, October 13-16, 2008. Margin of error is +/-2.4