Tracking Survey: Marriage Gap Drives Obama Margin


Anna Greenberg and David Walker
Women's Voices Women Vote Action Fund

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Memo (PDF - 14 K)

WVWVAF: Survey Results (PDF - 9 K)

Executive Summary

As the election heads into the final stretch, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and the Women’s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund releases a survey tracking presidential preferences among women voters in the battleground.

Key Findings

In national surveys, Obama now leads McCain by up to 10 points and has built support among Independents, older voters and other swing voters. But his margin among unmarried women—the largest demographic base group at 26 percent of the voting age population—anchors his margin. In fact, Obama leads 58 - 31 percent among unmarried women in the battleground, a lead that has been large and stable from the beginning of this campaign. Married women divide evenly (46 percent Obama, 47 percent McCain).

There is still some work to do among older women; older, white unmarried women still show room for growth. Moreover, while mail has proven an effective means of communicating with these voters, evidence in this survey emerges that too many unmarried women are not hearing enough from the progressives over this medium.

Methodology

This survey was conducted by Democratic polling firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, on behalf of the Women’s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund. It surveyed 1,028 respondents between October 12-14, 2008 in the battleground states of Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 3.0 at a 95 percent confidence level.