Stan Greenberg, James Carville, Mike Bocian, Al Quinlan
Obama Winning Ohio Memo (PDF - 6 K)
Ohio Survey Results (PDF - 3 K)
On the heels of the news that John McCain permanently suspended his campaign in economically strapped Michigan, its southern neighbor now favors Barack Obama over McCain 49 to 43 percent. Obama’s lead in Ohio is built on impressive 48 to 35 percent edge among independent voters. A new Democracy Corps survey by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner highlights the three factors that propel Obama’s 6-point lead in Ohio.
- McCain's attempt to seize the mantle of change is falling on deaf ears in Ohio. By 24 points, voters in the Buckeye state believe Obama, not McCain, is the reformer. By 18 points, Ohioans believe Obama will bring the right kind of change (Obama leads by 11 points on this measure in the latest Democracy Corps national and battleground survey).
- Obama is winning the economic debate. Obama’s aggressive positioning on the economic contrast against McCain is working and has given him large advantages on every important economic measure in a state where the economy is king. In a state where the economy is the most important issue on voters’ minds, Obama leads by 11 points on which candidate will do a better job on the economy, by 7 points on handling the financial crisis, by 11 points on gas prices and 12 points on energy. In a blow to the heart of McCain’s economic message, Obama leads by 4 points on taxes.
- The perception that Obama will stand up for the middle class is trumping concerns about race, religion or patriotism. Perhaps most startling, Obama leads by 27 points on which candidate will stand up for the middle class and by 13 on which candidate is on your side.
Democracy Corps survey of 600 likely voters in Ohio conducted September 29 - October 1, 2008.