Democracy Corps: Obama Consolidates Democrats and Clinton Supporters, Expands Lead in Presidential Battleground


Greenberg Quinlan Rosner / Democracy Corps
Democracy Corps

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DCorps Full Survey Results (PDF - 6 K)

Battleground Banners (PDF - 1 MB)

Battleground Targets (PDF - 25 K)

National Banners (PDF - 1 MB)

National Targets (PDF - 16 K)

 

Executive Summary

Barack Obama emerged from the Democratic convention with the Democratic Party unified behind him and a solid lead in the presidential battleground states. In the latest Democracy Corps survey, conducted after the Democratic convention, Obama leads John McCain by 5 points nationally (49 to 44 percent) and holds a striking 6-point advantage (49 to 43 percent) in a Republican-tilted battlefield that voted for Bush by 4 points in 2004.

 

Key Findings

  • After the Democratic convention Obama obtained a 4-point bounce in the presidential battleground as his electoral margin increased from a 2-point lead (46-44 percent) to a 6-point advantage (49-43 percent).
  • Obama’s current electoral advantage represents a significant swing compared to Democrats’ 2004 performance — especially in the battleground states where the advertising battle is playing out. Obama’s 5-point national lead represents a 7-point swing compared to Bush’s 2004 margin and his 6-point advantage in the battleground states represents an even larger 10-point swing compared to Bush’s performance in these states in 2004.
  • Barack Obama has consolidated the Democratic vote and has unified the Party. Both nationally and in the presidential battleground states Obama’s support among Democrats (87 percent nationally and 88 percent in the battleground states) is virtually identical to McCain’s support among Republicans.
  • Despite recent speculations that Sarah Palin’s nomination for vice-president could attract Hillary Clinton’s supporters to John McCain, this survey shows that Clinton’s supporters are solidly behind Barack Obama. Over eight-in-ten voters who supported Hillary Clinton during the Democratic presidential primaries are now backing Barack Obama for President.

 

Methodology

The survey fielded September 1-3, 2008 among 1,000 likely voters nationwide and 600 likely voters in 18 presidential battleground states The battleground states included in this sample are Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. The national sample has a margin of error of +/- 3.2%. The battleground sample is based on a total of 1,000 likely voters and includes the oversample of 600 likely voters in battleground states and the voters from the national sample that are registered in any of the presidential battleground states and has a margin of error of +/- 3.2%.