Greenberg Quinlan Rosner / Democracy Corps
DCorps: Reassurance & Change Report (PDF - 12 K)
Survey Results (PDF - 9 K)
Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner completed a special national survey of 2,000 likely voters that shows Barack Obama with a 4-point lead over John McCain in the race for president (49 to 45 percent). Obama has diminished some of the polarization around his image and provided key reassurances that have more voters saying he “has what it takes to be president.” Though this progress has been accompanied by some diminished enthusiasm for the presumptive Democratic nominee and only small gains among independent voters, Obama seems well-positioned to engage voters, consolidate Democrats and win over independents.
In this report, Stan Greenberg, James Carville and Ana Iparraguirre analyze the challenge that Obama faces in this new phase of the campaign as he will have to provide important reassurance on his biography, values and moderation, while offering a sense of purpose, direction and choice at a time of deepening crisis and demand for change.
- The most encouraging news in the poll is that Obama has raised his support among Democrats from 80 to 85 percent. If he gets it up to 90 percent - where McCain now stands with Republicans and that Kerry achieved earlier - it is hard to imagine how Obama would lose given the current party advantage in the country.
- Among self-identified Democrats, Obama lags most behind Kerry’s 2004 and the Democrats’ 2006 performances with white non-college voters and white men; among base-groups, he lags with white older unmarried women.
- Overall, Obama has made some modest headway on issues of "reassurance": 59 percent say he is a strong leader, 54 percent say he has what it takes to be president (up 2 points), and a minority of 47 percent now says, “just too many questions to take a chance on him as president” (down 2 points).
Findings in the memo are derived from a Democracy Corps national survey of 2.000 likely voters conducted June 22-24, 2008 by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner as well as a Democracy Corps national survey of 1,014 likely voters conducted May 13-15, 2008.