NPR Survey: Primaries Shaping the 2008 Landscape


This survey, conducted jointly by Stan Greenberg of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and Glen Bolger from Public Opinion Strategies, finds demonstrates that the partisan parity that existed in this country over the decade from 1995-2005 is gone, as independents are tilting significantly for the Democrats. But, because there is no presumptive nominee for the Republicans or Democrats for the first time in memory, the primary electorates of both parties will play an unusually large role in setting the agenda over the next year. Democrats’ positions on Iraq and energy independence have broad appeal beyond their primary electorate, but the electorate is torn on health care and sides with Republicans on immigration.  Presidential nominees will have to overcome the primary trap in order to be able to reach beyond their base after they have secured their party’s nomination.

Methodology

This bi-partisan survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and Public Opinion Strategies on behalf of National Public Radio. The survey fielded April 26-29, 2007 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.

Key Findings

  • On Iraq, Democratic primary voters are unified in favor bringing the war to an end, Republicans favor giving the President’s strategy more time to succeed - although a significant bloc is skeptical.
  • Democratic primary voters want  bold action on alternative energy, but Republican primary voters are divided.
  • As a whole, the public splits between a universal health insurance plan and tax incentives for individuals to purchase private health insurance, but primary voters side with their party’s positions.
  • Democrats and Republicans all favor a tough position on immigration. With Republicans favoring a tougher approach than the one proposed by the President it will be difficult for Congress to move forward on this issue despite the recent bi-partisan Senate agreement.

Downloads