Poll Results in CA 11: Pombo Remains in Serious Trouble


In an election cycle where voters are looking for change and incumbent Congressmen are in trouble across the country, that trend is clearly evident in California’s 11th Congressional district. Based on a recent survey conducted among likely voters in California’s 11th Congressional District, Republican Congressman Richard Pombo remains unpopular with voters and continues to be in real jeopardy of losing his seat. With less than six weeks left to go before Election Day and only two weeks before absentee ballots are mailed, Pombo continues to trail his Democratic opponent, Jerry McNerney, in a head-to-head vote. Furthermore, voters dislike Pombo personally and many believe he puts corporate interests over the public interests.

Despite being heavily outspent by Pombo and getting attacked in recent weeks, Jerry McNerney has successfully maintained his lead over Pombo since the last poll we conducted in May. Currently, McNerney garners the support of nearly half the electorate (48 percent) and continues to lead Pombo, who only attracts 46 percent of the vote. The race is essentially unchanged from our May survey that also showed Pombo was in serious trouble and accurately predicted he would lose a significant percentage of the Republican primary vote. However, there is one notable difference between the September and May surveys - now there are even fewer undecided voters (only 6 percent), leaving Pombo with very little room to increase his support.

Methodology

From September 24-26, 2006, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research conducted a survey by telephone among 413 likely voters in California Congressional District 11. The survey’s margin of error is approximately plus or minus 4.9 percent.

Key Findings

  • Republican Congressman Richard Pombo remains unpopular with voters and continues to be in real jeopardy of losing his seat.
  • The main reason voters are not supporting Pombo is because they fundamentally do not like him on a personal level.
  • Voters also have overwhelmingly negative opinions of Pombo on specific attributes, believing that  Pombo “puts corporate interests over the people’s interests,"  is "too close to lobbyists," and is “too close to oil and gas companies."

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