Recent Poll Results in California's 11th CD: Rep. Richard Pombo Is In Serious Trouble


Based on a recent poll conducted for Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund in California's 11th Congressional district, Congressman Richard Pombo faces his toughest challenge since he was first elected in 1992 and, in fact, is in real jeopardy of losing his seat. The results reported reflect voters' current attitudes about the Congressman and conservation issues and are all based upon responses to questions posed with no prior information provided. Currently:

  • A majority (52 percent) of voters in this district would vote for someone else and not vote to re-elect Pombo if the election were held today;
  • Pombo trails by eight (8) points to one of his Democratic rivals;
  • A plurality of voters disapproves of the job he is doing as Congressman;
  • More voters dislike Pombo personally than like him; and
  • Voters are dissatisfied with Pombo for putting corporate interests over the people's interests (53 percent), especially when it comes to protecting the environment.

Voters give Pombo poor ratings on multiple fronts despite the fact that there are more Republicans than Democrats in this district. Furthermore, Pombo's standing with voters in his district has deteriorated significantly since the previous survey we conducted last fall. In sum, these poll numbers are some of the worst ratings for any incumbent member of Congress in the entire country and lead us to the conclusion that Pombo is highly vulnerable and can be defeated.

Pombo's Re-elect: Voters in this district indicate that they are ready for someone else to represent them in Congress. A solid majority of voters now say they want someone else to be their representative whereas only one out of three voters (35 percent) would vote to re-elect the incumbent. The intensity is clearly on the side of those who want to see Pombo replaced - more than twice as many voters (35 percent) say they definitely would vote for someone else than say they would definitely re-elect Pombo (15 percent). Relatively few people do not have an opinion, as only three percent say it would depend on the person and one in ten (10 percent) are unsure.

Methodology

This memo is based upon a survey conducted between May 1-3, 2006 for the Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund. The survey, of 402 likely general election voters in California’s 11th Congressional district has a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent.

Key Findings

  • A majority of CA-11 voters would vote for someone else and not vote to re-elect Pombo if the election were held today
  • Pombo trails one of his Democratic rivals by eight points
  • A plurality of voters disapproves of Pombo's job performance
  • More voters dislike Pombo personally than like him
  • Voters are dissatisfied with Pombo for putting corporate interests over the people's interests' (53 percent), especially when it comes to protecting the environment.

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Recent Poll Results in California's 11th CD: Rep. Richard Pombos Is in Serious Trouble (Release) (PDF - 6 K)