Los Angeles Secession


The LA United campaign is in a good position to defeat proposals to allow both the San Fernando Valley and Hollywood to secede. Though the debate still has a long way to go to truly be defined, support for secession lacks the depth and breadth to succeed at this point. Even more encouraging is that support for secession tends to erode as voters are introduced to information on both sides of the debate, with the strongest messages against secession focusing on the economic uncertainties of breaking up the city.

Methodology

This survey was prepared and supervised by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner. Respondents were randomly selected from a universe of registered voters and screened for the likely November 2002 electorate. Calling took place between July 13 - 17, 2002. These findings, based on a sample size of 700 registered likely voters, are subject to a sampling error of +/- 3.7 percent. The citywide representative sample of 700 was supplemented with oversamples of 92 African American respondents, and 102 respondents living within the boundaries of the proposed Hollywood city.

Key Findings

  • 48 percent of Los Angelenos oppose the proposal to allow the San Fernando Valley to secede, with 41 percent in favor and 10 percent undecided.
  • In the proposed Valley area, secessionists have an advantage, with 37 percent against the secession proposal, 55 percent in favor, and 9 percent undecided.
  • The proposal for Hollywood secession begins in a very weak position, with 58 percent opposed, 28 percent in favor of secession, and 14 percent undecided.
  • The proposal receives strong opposition both in and outside the proposed city - the proposed Hollywood city initially opposes secession by a 41-point margin, 65 - 24 percent.

Downloads

Memo: Los Angeles Secession (DOC - 5 K)


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